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October 26, 2004
New Electoral College Analysis is Up
A rather intelligent fellow known to the world as the Chairman of the December 19th Society has done me the honor of allowing me to post his statistically-correct analysis of the Electoral College breakdown for this election cycle.
The link for this analysis can be found at http://countdown.kingofzing.com.
Essentially, this analysis takes an average of the polls, but correctly factors in the margin of error with a .95 confidence level.
Basically, when some talking head on TV tells you that there's a +/- 4 point margin of error to a poll, it doesn't necessarily mean that there's a potential 8 point swing. That argument is statistically fallacious. Want to know exactly how the polls work? Just go to the link.
Posted by Tim at October 26, 2004 09:29 AM
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at July 21, 2005 11:12 AM
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