King of Zing . Com: Debate #1: Kerry Wins Style, Bush Wins Substance

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October 01, 2004

Debate #1: Kerry Wins Style, Bush Wins Substance

The topic of tonight's debate at the University of Miami was foreign policy.

My overall analysis:

This was President Bush's debate to lose. Foreign policy, particularly the War on Terror and Op. Iraqi Freedom, is considered to be Bush's forte, while Senator Kerry is considered to be a flip-flopper (huge surprise there) when it comes to his positions on the war.

So, who won? Well, Kerry was more stylistically impressive. He appeared extremely confident, despite his continued flip-flopping on the issues. President Bush, on the other hand, appeared a bit shakier, irritated with Kerry's attacks, and seemingly tired. To be fair, however, President Bush was out touring hurricane disaster areas all day while Kerry was at his hotel spa receiving a manicure.

Kerry did well enough to prevent this debate from being the end of his campaign. However, he did not put a sizeable enough dent in President Bush's credibility to gain any serious ground. While the DNC is out in full force to spin the stylistic victory as a total victory, President Bush had much more to contribute in the way of substance. And substance is what matters.

As for the moderator, Jim Lehrer of PBS, I was definitely far from impressed. Rumors are abound of Lehrer winking at Kerry (which means that if he did, it's caught on tape) at the end of the debate. Kerry received mostly softballs, while Bush's questions were full of potholes and traps.

Anyways, onto the individual questions and responses!

Thanks to FOX News for the transcript!

Lehrer to Kerry: Do you believe you could do a better job than President Bush in preventing another 9/11-type terrorist attack on the United States? [Softball. Of course he does.]

Sen. Kerry: "Yes, I do." Goes on to thank moderator, UM, praises Florida for perseverance through hurricanes. Claims that he knows how to organize and lead an alliance, while Bush has left US alliances in shambles. We are 90% of casualties and costs of Op. Iraqi Freedom, "we can do better"; calls for summit with allies, better preparation for Iraq elections.

[KoZ]: Kerry claimed that he could do a better job than Bush, but really fails to distance himself from Bush's plan. Bush went to the UN for support, but France/Germany/Russia got in the way. Nevertheless, he put together a coalition of over 30 countries; Kerry makes no allusion to the existing coalition. Summit is already in the works, and preparation for the elections is without a doubt the #1 goal right now. Kinda dodged the question, even though it was a chance to clearly define his position.

Pres. Bush rebuttal: Echoes thanks to hosts of debate. We've been chasing AQ ever since 9/11; 75% of AQ leadership brought to justice. Harboring terrorism = terrorism. Iraq WAS a threat, Saddam is in jail, USA and world safer for it. We're disarming countries with WMD; Libya is disarmed, free nations will continue to fight terror.

[KoZ]: Good rebuttal, concise and to the point. Highlights what good he has done, while Kerry failed to highlight what he would effectively do better.

Lehrer to Bush: Do you believe the election of Senator Kerry on November the 2nd would increase the chances of the U.S. being hit by another 9/11-type terrorist attack? [Ahem, bias anyone? Obvious attempt to lure Bush into ad hominems.]

Pres. Bush: Not going to happen (that is, Kerry won't win), Americans know I know how to lead. Understands not everyone agrees with him, but people know where he stands. Cannot waver, must use all resources, stay on offensive. 10mil registered to vote in Afghanistan, 41% are women. Enemy thinks free Afghan./Iraq is threat to ideology; if we waver, we lose.

[KoZ]: Good avoidance of Lehrer's trap. First real dig at Kerry's flip-flopping with "people know where I stand" comment. Women being registered to vote is extremely important...keep in mind that the Taliban would never allow that.

Sen. Kerry rebuttal: Pledges to hunt down/kill terrorists, but do so smartly. Don't divert from real enemy UBL, alludes to no Hussein connection to 9/11, states reason for war was WMD not regime change. Accuses Pres. of incompetance, "colossal error of judgment." Lists off a few military endorsers. We outsourced capture of UBL to Afghan Warlords.

[KoZ]: 9/11 Commission report clearly stated no Saddam connection directly to 9/11, but Saddam did harbor AQ and UBL, therefore rendering Kerry's argument fallacious. WMD was not sole reason for war, obvious liberal talking point. Nobody cares about random generals endorsing you. Reference to outsourcing ironic, since outsourcing would continue under Kerry according to advisors.

Lehrer to Kerry: "Colossal misjudgments." What colossal misjudgments, in your opinion, has President Bush made in these areas? [Another softball, really looked as if Kerry is leading Lehrer rather than moderator controlling debate]

Sen. Kerry: "Where do you want me to begin?" Bush misled America by claiming to build alliance, claiming to go through UN. Joke about flip-flopping on going to UN. Containment was best way to deal with Hussein. War should be last resort, Bush owed that to families of fallen soldiers. References unilateralism, another 90%/90% reference; $200bil should be on domestic problems, not Iraq War. Iraq not center of WOT, Afghanistan was. 10x more troops in Iraq than Afghan = Saddam 10x more important than UBL?

[KoZ]: Two lame jokes fell flat. Fails again to acknowledge Coalition. Labelling Bush as a flip-flopper won't work, abandon that strategy before it devours you. Bush did go to UN, France/Germany/Russia got in the way. Also, don't forget Resolution 1441. Unilateralism trivializes UK, Aussies, Polish, et al. Iraq's not the center of the war? Then why are terrorists "pouring" into the country as per Allawi? We had UBL cornered? Prove it.

Pres. Bush rebuttal: Nails Kerry for "Saddam is grave threat" flip-flop of 2002. Also nails him for Dec. 2003 "anyone who doubts world safer without Saddam does not have judgment to be Pres." flip-flop. Tried diplomacy, went to UN without anyone telling him to do so. UN must enforce its resolutions. Saddam ignored 16 UN resolutions, was deceiving inspectors. Relying on inspectors is 9/10 mentality. Reaffirms that world is safer without Saddam.

[KoZ]: Pres. Bush starting to warm up, criticizing Kerry for flip-flopping is critical to proving he's unfit to be CiC. Reaffirmation of purpose for Iraq War is critical, calling attention to UN's failure to enforce its own resolutions also gives purpose to his actions. Specifically called Kerry on two flip-flops in a 90-second rebuttal, very effective.

Lehrer to Pres. Bush: What about Senator Kerry's point, the comparison he drew between the priorities of going after Usama bin Laden and going after Saddam Hussein? [Argh. Is this debate all about Kerry?]

Pres. Bush: We can do both, this is a global effort. Terrorists will strike anywhere anyhow. USA does have strong alliances. USA keeping WMD out of AQ's hands. Saying WOT has only one focus = not understanding WOT. UBL is isolated, Khalid Sheik Mohammed is in jail. More than one front in WOT, mentions AQ in Philippines. Zarqawi's resistance proves Iraq is a center of WOT. Failure in Iraq is largest potential disaster. Praises PM Allawi of Iraq. Iraqis will fight for their freedom, but need help and training. Elections will happen in Jan.

[KoZ]: Strong to point out that WOT isn't all about UBL or Saddam, but rather all-encompassing. Might have been a good place to start listing off allies, hearing all those names might discredit Kerry's unilateralism claims to independants. Showed solidarity behind Iraqi people. We've been on schedule so far in Iraq as far as transition of power, smart to say that elections will not be delayed.

Sen. Kerry rebuttal: Iraq was not center of WOT before Pres. Bush invaded. Pres. diverted troops away from Gen. Franks in Afghanistan before Congressional approval. Pres. rushed war in Iraq, didn't have plan to win the peace. Didn't even provide body armor for troops. [HUGE mistake by Kerry here.] Continues to mention lack of armor for troops/Humvees. WMD crossing borders every day. Not enough troops in Iraq.

[KoZ]: Ah, here's the anti-war candidate. Iraq was a mistake, eh? We rushed to war unprepared, eh? Why'd you vote for the war, then? And why didn't you vote for the $87 billion? Oh wait, you did, before you voted against it. Massive gaffe.

Pres. Bush asks to respond: Nails Kerry for "wrong place, wrong time" flip-flop. We cannot send mixed messages to troops, allies, or Iraqis.

[KoZ]: Great idea to ask for the extension. Since Sen. Kerry gaffed on a rebuttal, he almost got away with it, but Pres. Bush nailed him to the wall on this flip-flop.

Sen. Kerry: Claims to be steadfast/resolved. Must win in Iraq now that we're there, but was a mistake to go there instead of after UBL. We can succeed, but Pres. Bush cannot. We need President who can bring allies to the table.

[KoZ]: We're going to bring allies to a war that you claim to be at the wrong place and wrong time? Terrible. How can you bring allies to a war that you do not support?

Lehrer: We'll come back to Iraq in a moment. [Imagine that.] But I want to come back to where I began, on homeland security.

Lehrer to Kerry: As president, what would you do, specifically, in addition to or differently to increase the homeland security of the United States than what President Bush is doing? [FINALLY asking for specifics from Kerry. Thank you.]

Sen. Kerry: $500mil for cops in Iraq but cutting cops in USA is mixed message. Same argument for firehouses. Not "one nickel" spent on fixing some of our tunnels, bridges, exposed subways; blames this for closure of NYC subways during RNC. 95% of containers coming into FL ports aren't inspected. Civvi luggage x-rayed, but not cargo hold of planes. Bashes "tax cut for the rich" over homeland security. Refers to nuclear proliferation; pledges to secure loose material in former USSR in 4 years. States Pres. Bush can't do it for 13 years.

[KoZ]: No deviation from usual talking points on cops/firehouses, in fact I think he's using the same lines over and over again. Closure of subway during RNC was for homeland security -- let's not forget liberals and anarchists threatened to riot in the streets! Lots of pessimism here, but states no real plan for solving any of the problems.

Pres. Bush rebuttal: How will Kerry pay for all of this? Homeland Sec. spending has been 3xed to $30bil/yr. Created Dept. of Homeland Sec. 1k extra Border Patrol, $3.1bil on fire and police. We must stay on offense. Enemy only has to get lucky once, we must be right 100% of the time. We must renew Patriot Act.

[KoZ]: Probably should have pointed out that Kerry offered statistics, not solutions. Wise to point out $3.1bil on cops and firehouses, effectively neutralizes that talking point. Our border control sucks, he probably shouldn't harp on that. Parts of Patriot Act are scary to independants, probably not a good idea to go there.

Kerry gets a 30-second response: 100k hours of tape unlistened to by FBI -- could be the enemy? Spending more money doesn't solve the problem. Are you doing enough to make America safe? Bashes tax cut again.

[KoZ]: I've got $500 that says John Kerry did not submit his tax cut back to the government since he didn't need it. Still offers no real solution to solve domestic issues.

Pres. Bush 30 second response: Protecting America is my job. Briefed by Mueller every morning he's in DC. Homeland Security is hard work, President must hunt down terrorists before they hurt us again.

[KoZ]: I could practically feel President Bush's irritation with Kerry's talking points here.

Lehrer to Bush: What criteria would you use to determine when to start bringing U.S. troops home from Iraq? ["Bring the troops home!" liberal mantra. Yeehaw.]

Pres. Bush: Iraq can only be safe when citizens are fully trained and prepared. Will not bring troops home just to bring them home; wants to do so when we've achieved objective. When CENTCOM and Negroponte say Iraq is ready, and elections have happened, withdrawal can begin. Notes Kerry's "six month" withdrawal promise and bashes it. Thanks troops. Free Iraq essential ally in WOT.

[KoZ]: Reiterates that we cannot leave before Iraq is fully ready to defend itself. Wisely states that decision to withdraw is not fully up to President; military and UN ambassador need to be involved in decision-making on troop withdrawal. Kerry's "six month" promise was idiotic, and Bush wisely bashed it.

Kerry rebuttal: "Help is on the way." Troops deserve better. Mentions Bush 41 not going into Baghdad due to lack of exit strategy, saying troops would be occupiers. We only guarded the oil ministry, did not guard nuclear facilities. Didn't guard foreign office, didn't close borders. Vietnam reference to missions where you don't know what's around the corner. We need more allied troops. We need summit. I am credible.

[KoZ]: Pretty lame to steal the Bush/Cheney 2000 slogan. Troops deserve better, yes, but you did vote against the body armor. Bush 41 didn't need to go into Baghdad because we were still practicing containment, not regime change. We didn't guard the nuclear facilities? Wait, I thought Saddam didn't have nuclear/WMD capability? Another flawed reference to bringing more allied troops to "wrong place, wrong time" war.

Pres. Bush asks for 1min follow-up session. Lehrer agrees.

Pres. Bush: Nails Kerry on "wrong war/place/time" flip-flop again. Calls attention to "great diversion" rhetoric. Mentions $87bil flip-flop. CiC cannot do this and lead troops.

[KoZ]: Good follow-up, more flip-flops highlighted.

Sen. Kerry: I screwed up on the $87bil quote, but Pres. Bush screwed up invading Iraq: Which is worse? You must right wrongs; another Vietnam reference. I did what was unpopular to stand against wrong. I will lead troops to victory.

[KoZ]: If liberals in the crowd were allowed to cheer in a debate, they'd be screaming and cheering at this point. Very effective first line in this follow-up. You really ought to stop mentioning Vietnam, though; no independants see Iraq as Vietnam lite.

Lehrer to Kerry: Speaking of Vietnam, you spoke to Congress in 1971, after you came back from Vietnam, and you said, quote, "How do you ask a man to be the last man to die for a mistake?" Are Americans now dying in Iraq for a mistake? [Tough question for Kerry. Nice.]

Sen. Kerry: No, but they don't have to provided that I am leader. Agrees that we must win in Iraq. Acknowledges yea vote on war because of the available intel. We didn't plan war well, we rushed, we went unilaterally, and we didn't use war as last resort. References retirement of Gen. Shinsheki over saying hundreds of thousands of troops necessary. Invading Iraq after 9/11 = Invading Mexico for Pearl Harbor. Annan offered UN support, but Bush refused it. Bashes Halliburton.

[KoZ]: War's not a mistake, but it's 'wrong war/place/time'? Standard liberal talking points over failure to prepare properly. Gen. Shinsheki conspiracy theory ain't gonna fly with most people. Annan just called the war in Iraq illegal, why would he have offered UN support? Ridiculous.

Pres. Bush rebuttal: Totally absurd. UN was invited, we support UN efforts there. They pulled out after de Mello's death, but they're back to help with elections. We didn't have allies? What about Blair? Kwasniewski (Poland)? CiC cannot denigrate allies. Kerry's message is "Please help us in the wrong war at the wrong time, allies!" I know how allies think, they will not follow this rhetoric. Summit being held in Japan already. Arab summit coming, Colin Powell organized it.

[KoZ]: President Bush seemed very angry here. Spinners will have to defend the 'totally absurd' remark, but it was nice to break the boredom. Good call mentioning denigration of allies. Takes summit card away from Kerry's deck.

Kerry gets 40 seconds: We refused Annan/UN help after fall of Baghdad, operation always American-run. USA/GB/AUS not an impressive coalition.

[KoZ]: Oh lordy, more denigration of allies. Pres. Bush should smack this one out of the park.

Bush gets 30 seconds: Kerry forgot Poland. Over 30 nations in Coalition. Kerry called them 'Coalition of the Coerced and Bribed' and CiC cannot do that. If I remain CiC, Coalition remains strong.

[KoZ]: And he did. Solid follow-up.

Lehrer to Bush: You have said there was a, quote, "miscalculation," of what the conditions would be in post-war Iraq. What was the miscalculation, and how did it happen? [Mischaracterization of a Bush quote. Go figure.]

Pres. Bush: Not what I said: Rapid seizure of Baghdad meant more Saddam loyalists still alive. Credits Franks for military operation. Casualties are hard to accept, but work is necessary. NATO, Jordan, UAE helping out now. Going from a land of beheadings to freedom is hard, but necessary work.

[KoZ]: More references to allies not given any credit by Kerry. Lehrer's really piling on the loaded questions, but Pres. Bush seems ready for them.

Sen. Kerry rebuttal: Cannot believe Pres. Bush says he would have done everything the same way if he had to do it over again. Good policy and leadership based on truth. Gives props to Blair, but says that number of troops from other countries in coalition reflects weak coalition. Says again that USA/UK/AUS and "one or two others" started the war. References NK having nukes while we're after Saddam.

[KoZ]: So let me get this straight: Bush is lying or misleading America. Our 30+ nation coalition sucks. And you want to disarm North Korea unilaterally. Right.

Lehrer to Kerry: You just -- you've repeatedly accused President Bush -- not here tonight, but elsewhere before -- of not telling the truth about Iraq, essentially of lying to the American people about Iraq. Give us some examples of what you consider to be his not telling the truth. [Decent tough question. Calls Kerry out.]

Sen. Kerry: I never said "lying." Bush hasn't been candid. Talked about nuclear materials that didn't exist. Coalition is nothing like he promised. Bush arbitrarily cut off UN process, as well as diplomatic efforts. More 'failure to plan' arguments. America's status in world wounded. I've worked with foreign leaders longer than Bush, and know how to bring them back to us. UBL uses Iraq war to recruit terrorists. I will follow in the footsteps of Reagan and Kennedy.

[KoZ]: "I never said Bush is a liar, but he did lie." It's kinda amusing, Kerry flip-flops when he's not even trying to flip-flop. More appeasement of France/Germany. Huge mistake to say he'll follow in Reagan's footsteps, seeing as he demonized Reagan up until now. He'll pay for that one on pundits' shows.

Pres. Bush rebuttal: UBL doesn't decide how we defend ourselves, we do. I made right decision on Iraq. Kerry wasn't misleading on "grave threat" and "no judgment" quotes, and I wasn't either. CiC must remain consistent. As politics change, Kerry's position changes, and CiC cannot act this way. We all looked at same intel to authorize war.

[KoZ]: UBL line came across in a confusing manner, hard to follow. Hits Kerry again on two of his own quotes, reminding us that he and Kerry had access to the same intel.

Lehrer calls for 30-second follow-ups.

Sen. Kerry: I wasn't misleading on Saddam, nor when I said alliances should be stronger and diplomacy better. I've been consistent from beginning that Saddam was a threat. There was a right and wrong way to disarm Saddam, Bush chose wrong way.

[KoZ]: I found myself screaming, "What more do you want?" at this point. We had the 30+ nation coalition, and the UN rendered itself impotent by its failure to enforce 16 resolutions. Kerry's digging a hole here, but only those actively involved in politics will notice. Average people will just see Kerry as determined, confident.

Pres. Bush: Only consistency about Kerry is his inconsistency. I expect to win. We have duty to America to free Iraq, Afghanistan, and rid world of WMD.

[KoZ]: Good, humorous first line; unlike Kerry, Bush is capable of being funny. Rest is all standard Republican talking points.

Lehrer to Bush: Has the war in Iraq been worth the cost of American lives, 1,052 as of today? [*banging head against desk*]

Pres. Bush: Every life is precious, putting troops in harm's way hardest part of job. Direct reference to 'Carolina' whose husband PJ died in Iraq. Pre-emption is necessary for America. We must understand that effort is worth it because we have done our part to give freedom to the desperate.

[KoZ]: Lehrer's wording of this question was asinine. President's platform is essentially that freedom is worth fighting and dying for. Very clear and obvious to anyone who's ever heard him speak.

Sen. Kerry rebuttal: Reference to losing soldiers in Vietnam combat. We must not confuse war with warriors. It's noble to get the job done in honor of those who have fallen as well as their families. Iraq cannot hold an election right now. Refers to four-point plan by pointing to website, not mentioning it verbally.

[KoZ]: More Vietnam? 'Confusing war with warriors' line confusing. Only three provinces in Iraq ungovernable right now, Kerry's argument over elections flawed. He missed a golden opportunity to outline his four-point plan in person here, referring to the website is a deflection of the issue. He did this, however, to avoid Bush's potential rebuttal of the plan.

Lehrer gives 30-second follow-ups...

Pres. Bush: 'Wrong war/place/time' quote would make CiC look like an idiot to troops. Mentions 'grand diversion' again.

[KoZ]: Repeated theme throughout, outlining the same two flip-flops of Kerry.

Sen. Kerry: 'Pottery Barn' rule: You break it, you fix it. I'm not inconsistent, I will fix war strategy for sake of Israel, America, world, and WOT. I have a plan, Bush doesn't.

[KoZ]: *sigh* John, if you're going to quote a store policy, get it right. It's "You break it, you buy it." Anyway, saying Bush doesn't have a plan is foolish when you have failed to verbally describe your own with little more than generalities.

Lehrer to Kerry: Speaking of your plan, new question, Senator Kerry. Two minutes. Can you give us specifics, in terms of a scenario, time lines, et cetera, for ending major U.S. military involvement in Iraq? [Bring the troops home! Bring the troops home! *eyeroll* C'mon Jim.]

Sen. Kerry: Bush misleading saying I'd withdraw in six months. If we succeed according to my plan, we could begin withdrawal in six months. Must convince ME that we don't have long-term occupation plans in Iraq. Mentions 14 bases, possible permanent concept. Mentions guarding of oil ministry but not nuclear facilities again. We can't back off on Fallujah, must close Iraq's borders during reconstruction. USA has no long-term interest in staying in Iraq. We must win peace by rapidly training the Iraqis and getting out. We've been there 16 months so far, and administration admits it hasn't done the training properly.

[KoZ]: Beginning withdrawal in six months is the same as withdrawing in six months, in a literal sense. Notice that the terrorists are sabotaging oil pipelines, we're guarding it in order to preserve Iraq's economy, which is heavily oil-based. Kerry doesn't realize that we still have troops in Germany, Japan, Korea from those wars...

Pres. Bush rebuttal: 100k Iraqi troops trained so far, 125k will be trained by end of year. Mentions Kerry criticism of PM Allawi's credibility, and campaign staff referring to Allawi as a puppet. Vast majority of Iraqis want elections. Rejects notion that Muslims do not desire freedom, perhaps Kerry doesn't reject this?

[KoZ]: Has thrown out the 125k number a couple of times now. Kerry is beating dead horses, but doing so confidently. Criticism of Allawi's credibility will be a huge issue, Pres. Bush needs to hit this harder. Bringing religion of Islam into this debate possibly a mistake, seeing as Kerry's already labeled this a religious war. Don't play into his hands.

Lehrer allows 30-second follow-ups...

Sen. Kerry: Iraqis do want to be free. PM Allawi says terrorists pouring in through borders. Worst case is civil war for Iraq, I can do better.

[KoZ]: Dangerous ground here, setting yourself up for "If Iraq isn't a center of WOT, then why are terrorists pouring in?"

Pres. Bush: PM Allawi recognizes Iraq is central in WOT. Terrorists fight us to fight freedom. We must hold the line.

[KoZ]: Told ya.

Lehrer to Bush: Does the Iraq experience make it more likely or less likely that you would take the United States into another preemptive military action? [Those damn Republican warmongerers! Rawr!]

Pres. Bush: Hope I don't have to. Didn't want to commit troops, never dreamt I'd do so in 2000. We were attacked, and I had to protect American people. We won't have to use troops if we don't send mixed messages from now on, but a CiC must be prepared to use troops as a last resort.

[KoZ]: Despite Lehrer's best efforts to paint Pres. Bush a warmongerer, he evades that accusation quite nicely by stating that he never wanted to go to war. Terrorists started this war with us, remember? However, Pres. Bush remains firm that, while nobody wants to go to war, a CiC must be prepared to commit troops if necessary.

Sen. Kerry rebuttal: UBL attacked us, not Saddam. Another outsourcing reference to capturing UBL, says we used warlords instead of our troops. AQ now in sixty countries and getting stronger recruits. Containment of Saddam was working. Bush should have been patient with UN, diplomacy.

[KoZ]: Lots of repetition in this debate! Kerry's disputing the notion that there can be more than one focus in WOT. Unfortunately, AQ isn't the only terrorist group out there. What of Hamas? Hizbollah? Is Arafat not a focus as well? Containment theory disproved by fact that Saddam willfully deceived inspectors, defied 16 UN resolutions.

Lehrer gives candidates 30-second follow ups...

Pres. Bush: Shows signs of irritation. Knows UBL attacked us. Ludicrous to think more UN resolutions would disarm Saddam. We tried diplomacy, but Saddam turned blind eye and would have gotten stronger had we not dealt with him.

[KoZ]: Pres. Bush lost his temper for a bit here, Gore-style. Standard Republican talking points on failure of containment. Emotion of first line likely wasted due to standard lines.

Sen. Kerry: Many countries had greater capability than Saddam of making WMD. 9/10 of active duty Army somehow involved in Iraq while N. Korea grows stronger. World more dangerous due to Iran nuke threat and Sudan genocide.

[KoZ]: Give this exchange to Kerry. Bush's irateness with Kerry's earlier rebuttal probably cost him this round. However, Kerry rhetoric makes it seem like we should have invaded or taken hardline on much more dangerous countries than Iraq, could scare independants.

Lehrer to Kerry: What is your position on the whole concept of preemptive war? [Back to the softballs. Kerry's answered this question time and time again.]

Sen. Kerry: President reserves right to strike preemptively thanks to Cold War doctrine. Would not cede right to preempt. Must pass 'global test' to prove preemption done for right reasons. Mentions DeGaulle "The word of the POTUS is good enough for me" quote. We have lost that kind of respect in the world by going to war in Iraq and backing out of treaties such as Kyoto.

[KoZ]: Kerry's walking into a trap here. It's long been an accusation that he would ask for a permission slip to defend this country, and this 'global test' analogy gives Republicans and Pres. Bush yet more ammo.

Pres. Bush rebuttal: 'Global test' makes no sense. Preemptive strike is to protect Americans, not please world. Backed out of ICC to preserve American sovereignty; unaccountable judges and prosecutors could put Americans on trial. Forsaking best interest to gain global popularity makes no sense.

[KoZ]: Pres. Bush failed to slam Kerry on the permission slip issue directly. Should have probably quoted that talking point. Mentioning ICC to rebut treaty notion good idea, but should have also rebutted Kyoto.

Lehrer to Bush: Do you believe that diplomacy and sanctions can resolve the nuclear problems with North Korea and Iran? Take them in any order you would like. [As opposed to...war?]

Pres. Bush: Yes in regards to N. Korea. Bilateral talks were not working since Kim-Jong Il could back away and just hurt us. Multilateral talks involving US/China/SK/Jap/Rus mean that if NK backs out, they do neighbors an injustice instead of just USA. NK wants to unraval multilateral talks, resume bilateral talks, and we cannot appease them. Hopeful that diplomacy, UN, IAEA can disarm Iran.

[KoZ]: More 'warmongerer' bait from Lehrer, but Bush dodges nicely. Establishes strong belief in multilateral talks with NK, disassociating from unilateral label affixed to him by Kerry. Using IAEA/UN instead of just USA sanctions does same for Iran.

Sen. Kerry rebuttal: UK/Ger/Fra initiated effort to disarm Iran without USA. USA should have provided fuel to Iran as a test, sanctioning if Iran unwilling to compromise. Inspectors/cameras were in NK, Bush suspended bilateral talks and embarassed SK. Inspectors kicked out, fuel rods moved, cameras removed during this two-year period, resulting in 4-7 nukes for NK.

[KoZ]: USA is actively involved in disarming of Iran due to proximity to Iraq, rendering Kerry's claim false. USA should have given Iran nuclear fuel? Are you kidding me?! Kerry takes side of bilateral talks, saying abandonment cost us knowledge of NK's programs. However, offering Iran fuel overshadows any other argument here. Terrible idea.

Lehrer pauses to clarify candidates' positions on talks with NK. Bush favors multilateral, Kerry bilateral and multilateral.

Lehrer to Kerry: Senator Kerry, you mentioned Darfur, the Darfur region of Sudan. Fifty thousand people have already died in that area. More than a million are homeless. And it's been labeled an act of ongoing genocide. Yet neither one of you or anyone else connected with your campaigns or your administration that I can find has discussed the possibility of sending in troops. Why not? [Perfectly valid question regarding Sudan.]

Sen. Kerry: Dodges to Iran for a bit. States that US sanctions alone wont solve Iran problem, must come from USA/UK/Ger/Fra et al. Sudan can be solved through African Union logistical support + humanitarian support. Our military is overextended. Alludes to 'backdoor draft' and stop-loss programs. Plans to add two active duty divisions to Army for demands around globe, not for Iraq. Plans to 2x Special Forces troops for WOT. Cannot allow another Rwanda, use force to coalesce African Union if absolutely necessary.

[KoZ]: We're overextended and don't have enough troops, yet Kerry proposes to double SpecOps and add two divisions. Curious. Dangerous for a liberal Democrat to mention the draft, seeing as Rangel and Hollings are the sponsors of the draft bills in Congress.

Bush rebuttal: Sanctions on Iran were in place long before he took office. $200mil in aid committed to Darfur, more coming. Doesn't want to commit troops, favors working with African Union like in Liberia (stabilize with some troops, then let African Union take over). AU most move quickly to save lives.

[KoZ]: Basically agrees with Kerry on this one. So much for the unilateralism of the Bush administration.

Lehrer to Bush: New question, President Bush. Clearly, as we have heard, major policy differences between the two of you. Are there also underlying character issues that you believe, that you believe are serious enough to deny Senator Kerry the job as commander in chief of the United States? [More attempts to bait Bush into ad hominem attacks!]

Pres. Bush: "That's a loaded question." [No kidding.] Compliments Kerry daughters, military service, jokes about going to Yale. Only concern voiced is that over repeated changes in position.

[KoZ]: Absolutely ridiculous and shameful question by Lehrer. Pres. Bush did well to avoid it by complimenting Kerry and saying only what he's said before in the debate.

Sen. Kerry rebuttal: Thanks Bush, and compliments Bush daughters and Laura. Not his place to talk about character. Can be certain and still be wrong. Bush must acknowledge faults on the ground.

[KoZ]: Equally smart of Kerry to be gracious and avoid ad hominems. This pointless question got us nowhere. Lehrer gets an F- for stupidity.

Lehrer allows 30-second follow-ups.

Pres. Bush: One should, and we will, shift tactics in Iraq. Core values and message must not change, however. President cannot wilt under pressure.

[KoZ]: Reiteration of message. Can't believe there's a follow-up to extend this already crappy question.

Sen. Kerry: I won't wilt, haven't wavered. Maintains consistency, but claims we had no plan to win the peace.

[KoZ]: Kerry's goal is to rid himself of the flip-flopper label. It ain't working.

Lehrer to Kerry: If you are elected president, what will you take to that office thinking is the single most serious threat to the national security to the United States? [Kerry gets another softball.]

Sen. Kerry: Nuclear proliferation. Less nuke material secured in last two years than in two years preceding 9/11. Cannot believe USA is researching new nukes it might use (bunker busters), and will shut that program down. Intends to continue Kennedy tradition of Nuclear Test Ban Treaty.

[KoZ]: If there was any doubt that Kerry's weak on defense, it should now be fully and totally gone. Kerry proposes to solve proliferation by ending USA programs?!

Pres. Bush rebuttal: Nukes in hands of terrorists is greatest threat. -35% to funding for dealing with proliferation since he took office. Proliferation Security Initiative involves over 60 nations in disrupting black market WMD and information transfers. AQ Khan network busted, Libya disarmed. R&D must continue, missile defense being constructed, which Kerry opposed.

[KoZ]: Pres. Bush wisely pointed out that terrorist nukes, not USA nukes, are greatest threat to the USA. Another reference to Bush's multilateralism that has gone ignored by the left. Give this exchange to the President.

Lehrer calls for one-minute discussion on question. Kerry calls for bilateral talks with NK again, Bush reiterates that that's a mistake.

Lehrer to Bush: All right. Mr. President, this is the last question. And two minutes. It's a new subject -- new question, and it has to do with President Putin and Russia. Did you misjudge him or are you -- do you feel that what he is doing in the name of antiterrorism by changing some democratic processes is OK? [Of course not, Jim, the return to communism is super! What do you think?]

Pres. Bush: Putin cannot do away with checks and balances, and must maintain democratic reforms. Putin is key ally in WOT, especially after Beslan attack. Emphasizes his good relationship with Putin.

[KoZ]: Obviously, Putin's 'reforms' are bad for Russian democracy. However, only through maintaining a good relationship can we have any input on democratic reform in Russia.

Sen. Kerry rebuttal: More war stories. Putin returning to pre-democratic Russia politics. USA must remain partners with Russia, but must stand up for democracy. Quotes George Will [Who?]. Returns to NK issue. Just because Bush says bilateral talks will fall apart doesn't mean they will. Refers to WMD, 'Mission Accomplished', and supposed cheap cost of war.

[KoZ]: Yet another Vietnam reference! And who the heck is George Will? Kerry couldn't resist getting in the Mission Accomplished slam, but he did so poorly. After all, Bush never actually said 'Mission Accomplished'. Also, Bush and Kerry relied on the same intel for WMD, and Kerry claimed Saddam with WMD was a threat. Flip-flopping.

One-minute discussion.

Pres. Bush: You already know opinion on NK. Cannot say it more plainly. [Good.]

Lehrer to Bush: Well, but when he used the word "truth" again... [Here comes the bait..]

Pres. Bush: Pardon me?

Lehrer to Bush: ... talking about the truth of the matter. He used the word "truth" again. Did that raise any hackles with you? [And there it is.]

Pres. Bush: Oh, I'm a pretty calm guy. I don't take it personally. Bush and Kerry used same intel, both came to same conclusion on threat of Saddam. Will not hold 'grave threat' quote against Kerry, since he was speaking truth.

[KoZ]: Another successful evasion of a biased and loaded question. Nails Kerry's flip-flopping again.

Sen. Kerry: Threat is not issue, but what was done about threat is. "True coalition" and "exhaust remedies of UN" must mean something. War must be last resort. $200bil "mess" in Iraq.

[KoZ]: Nothing new here. Talking points.

Closing statements.

Sen. Kerry: Thanks Lehrer, UM, Bush for debate. Both candidates love USA, but have different sets of convictions for how to make country 'stronger at home, respected in the world.' We are strongest when we lead strong alliances. We need fresh start and new credibility to be successful in Iraq. Cites having a plan to win WOT, fund Homeland Sec., strengthen military, cut finances, build alliances. Stronger/more respected line again.

[KoZ]: If I wanted to know you stood for being 'stronger at home, more respected in the world' I'd go down the streets near my campus at Emory and look at your campaign signs. Give us specifics, Senator! Just talking points here, closing statement adds nothing to the debate.

Pres. Bush: Thanks Lehrer, Kerry for debate. World will drift toward tragedy if USA wavers. Military will remain 100% volunteer, homeland sec. and intel will be strengthened. Stress on continuing to build alliances. We must stay on offense to prevent fighting terrorists on USA turf. Free Iraq/Afghan is in USA and world's best interests, and will be beacon of freedom to oppressed millions in Middle East.

[KoZ]: Again, no real surprises here. Good to dismiss notion of a draft, however. Popular urban legend holds that Bush is trying to sneak a draft in, yet liberal Democrats are the only sponsors of the draft bills. Bush must successfully dissolve this rumor in campaign ahead to win independants over. Rest is all standard campaign stuff.

Lehrer closes debate.

Posted by Tim at October 1, 2004 02:46 AM